Net zero by 2050 why Liberal Party moderates believe theyve won

Back in February, when Prime Minister Scott Morrison expressed a preference for Australia to reach net zero by 2050, it represented a small but significant step for the Coalition.

The party has been fighting internally since 2009 over climate change - including whether it is man made and how to respond to it. The issue has been the cause of at least three leadership changes, and a contributing factor in a fourth.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday 9 August 2021Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

It’s an issue that has periodically caused severe strains between the Liberals and Nationals, most recently in June when Barnaby Joyce returned as Deputy Prime Minister over the issue and signalled he would oppose a net zero target by 2050 because of the potential financial impact on regional communities.

Joyce now appears to be softening his position and preparing to negotiate with Morrison.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House, more frequent and extreme weather events around the world and a clear signal from business that inaction will have economic consequences for mean it is all but certain - at least in the view of Liberal Party moderates - that Morrison will commit to net zero in time for the Glasgow climate summit at year’s end.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released last week - which warned that even under the best emissions reductions scenarios the world will likely warm by 1.5 degrees by 2040 - underscores the need for governments to take action. And the international pressure on Australia to do its part is only growing.

The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age spoke to six members of the federal Liberal Party’s so-called moderate faction to gauge their views about whether Morrison will commit to net zero. All agreed to speak but only the condition of anonymity, so they could freely discuss how internal party tensions were being managed.

“We have been reassured by internal conversations that the PM plans to get there [net zero] so we are giving him the political space to do it, to get the Nationals over the line,” one MP said. “If you’re on the winning side you don’t always have to speak up about it.”

A second MP said the Prime Minister was headed in the right direction, towards net zero, and that “he has moved significantly from when he held a lump of coal in Parliament”.

“Our interest is in the outcome and 98 per cent of the backbench accept we are headed in this direction, it’s just the speed of arrival in question,” the MP said. “People like George [Christensen, a Nationals MP who has been an outspoken sceptic] need to be taken on the journey. What does he want as his legacy - millions in investment in his seat or fighting net zero for a few more months?”

Then treasurer Scott Morrison with a lump of coal in Parliament in February 2017.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

A third MP confidently predicted: “Net zero by 2050 is a done deal and we will exceed our 2030 targets too, so we may as well update them and take the credit.”

However, this MP said that over the coming months - in the lead up to Glasgow - it is likely that Liberal supporters of stronger action to tackle climate change would speak out to push back against political opponents, including independents targeting Liberal-held seats.

“The moderates have worked quietly behind the scenes to get some fantastic stuff in terms of social reforms. Now we are under attack by left-wing front groups who say ‘what have we done?’ We can’t be strategically silent anymore and we’ve actually achieved quite a lot.”

So while the focus has mostly been on what the Nationals may or may not do to stop Australia signing up to a net zero pledge, internally the battle appears to be moving on, and the moderates are set to claim a victory that will ensure Australia does its part for the planet.

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James Massola is political correspondent for the Sun-Herald & Sunday Age. He won the Kennedy award for Outstanding Foreign Correspondent while posted in Jakarta and wrote The Great Cave Rescue. He was previously chief political correspondent.

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