UK Covid live news more than 800000 people had coronavirus last week ONS estimates

The ONS figures also provide a hint that, amongst secondary school pupils in England, case rates might be plateauing too.

The report says that in England case rates were going up last week amongst all age groups, except for secondary school pupils in years 7 to 11. Amongst this group cases were going up in the fortnight to 17 July, but in the seven days up to 17 July “the trend is uncertain”, the ONS says.

Turning back to the latest ONS infection survey figures (see 12.31pm), the figures also show that, although the percentage of people testing positive in all other regions of England was going up last week, there is a hint in the figures that in the north-east and the north-west cases may be plateauing.

The ONS says that over the fortnight up to 17 July cases in these two regions increased, but that “the trend is uncertain in the week ending 17 July”.

Here are graphs showing the regional trends in England.

The line on the north-east graph makes it look as though cases have definitely started to fall. But the ONS says: “Caution should be taken in over-interpreting any small movements in the latest trend, particularly in the north-east where the credible intervals are wider and therefore uncertainty is higher.”

The Scottish government has announced that, like the UK government, it is also allowing a limited number of critical workers who are fully vaccinate to use regular testing as an alternative to isolation if they have been in contact with someone testing positive.

Firms will have to apply to take part in the scheme through the Scottish government’s website and they will only be allowed to do so if they meet its definition of being part of critical national infrastructure. They will also have to show how isolation is impacting on their work, and what other steps they have taken to address the problem.

In a news release announcing the measure Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said:

It is essential that lifeline services and critical national infrastructure are maintained and we are implementing these changes now - ahead of possible changes to self-isolation rules for close contacts that may apply more generally in future - to ensure staff shortages do not put key services at risk.

We have seen significant staff shortages in a small number of organisations in recent days and we have worked with them to protect services. Applications for exemptions are being considered from today and we will consider applications as they come in.

Clinical evidence tells us we can safely and effectively release some critical staff from self-isolation, with appropriate safeguards. However, this is a very limited change at this stage, to be applied on a case by case basis and only where absolutely necessary.

We will not allow key services to be threatened by staff shortages but equally we must continue to protect public health.

The Office for National Statistics has published its latest Covid infection survey figures. This exercise uses mass sampling to assess the true prevalence of coronavirus in the UK, and it is seen as one of the best guides to the spread of the virus because the official case numbers miss so many people who are asymptomatic, or who do not get a test.

Here are the latest figures. They cover the period up to last Saturday, 17 July

England

The ONS says cases were continuing to increase.

It says 1 person in 75 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 95 the previous week.

It says this means an estimated 741,700 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.

Wales

The ONS says cases increased.

It says 1 person in 210 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 360.

It says this means an estimated 14,400 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.

Northern Ireland

The ONS says cases increased

It says 1 person in 170 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 290.

It says this means an estimated 10,900 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.

Scotland

The ONS says cases increased over the last fortnight, but the trend for the most recent week is “uncertain”.

It says 1 person in 80 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 90 the previous week.

It says this means an estimated 65,100 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.

These figures are all central estimates and are subject to credibility intervals. The 95% credible interval ranges are given in the report.

As my colleague Ian Sample reports today, a pilot programme has shown that asking students who have been in contact with someone testing positive to use daily tests to reduce the risk of spreading the virus is as effective as asking them to isolate.

In his story Ian quotes responses to the study from various scientists, including one who says “the conclusions could equally be that both interventions are highly effective or that both interventions have no value whatsoever”, but the Science Media Centre has posted even more reaction from scientists on its website.

Most of them give a qualified welcome to the conclusions of the study. But Billy Quilty, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine says “reductions in school absences were smaller than expected however, which the authors note may have been influenced by a 49.5% participation rate in daily testing and the ineligibility of individuals who were contacts of cases from outside the school setting”.

And Jon Deeks, a professor of biostatistics at Birmingham University, argues the study has failed to make the case for testing as an alternative to isolation because “Covid infection rates were higher in the schools where contact testing was used” and because the impact on school absences was only limited.

The Scottish Hospitality Group, which represents firms in the Scottish hospitality sector, is proposing an alternative approach to dealing with the problem caused by staff being told they have to isolate because they have been in contact with someone testing positive. It is a hybrid between the current system for most people, who are expected to isolate, and the system allowing some workers to use daily testing as an alternative. The SHG is suggesting that employers take decisions about what staff should do by following this flowchart, which makes allowance for whether staff think they really might pose a risk, and whether their absence would lead to the business having to close.

The SHG wants the UK and Scottish governments to endorse this approach. Stephen Montgomery, an SHG spokesperson, said:

This is something that Holyrood and Westminster must take seriously ahead of restrictions easing further. Our proposed process may not be perfect but it’s better than the vacuum we have just now and it would allow everyone to make sensible decisions that balance jobs and health.

The British Frozen Food Federation has described the measures announced by the government last night to allow around 10,000 food depot staff to use testing as an alternative to isolation (see 9.28am) as “worse than useless”. Richard Harrow, the BFFF’s chief executive, explained:

The government announcement last night that parts of the supply chain will be allowed to test and release workers that are pinged by track and trace only goes part of the way. It shows that yet again government does not understand how connected the food supply chain is, only opening part is unlikely to solve the overall issue.

Plus, who is in and who is out, who decides and how do they decide? Confusion continues to pervade and I have been advised no list until Monday. This is worse than useless.

The British Medical Association, effectively the trade union for doctors, has called for “an urgent rethink” of the government’s Covid strategy, arguing that Boris Johnson has gone too far in lifting restrictions. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chair of the BMA council, has frequently questioned government policy in the past, but this morning he issued a particularly strong critique, arguing that the media focus on the so-called pingdemic is missing the point. He said:

The government’s current public infection control strategy is not working, it is leading to rocketing case numbers with more illness in the community, more people in hospital, and more people having to isolate. It is time for an urgent rethink rather than staying on the same course.

BMA members across the country are seeing patient care threatened as surges in Covid illness is resulting in hospitals having to cancel more non-urgent care and GPs are overstretched with demand. Local public health units are overwhelmed with calls from schools and businesses. These pressures are now being exacerbated by increasing numbers of health service staff themselves falling ill or self-isolating, and unable to work at a time when they are most needed. Other key services such as supermarkets are telling us that they are struggling to put food on their shelves due to staff absences.

The government needs to wake up. This is not a problem about excessive pinging of the NHS app, but is a direct result of lack of effective measures by government that is allowing the virus to let rip throughout the nation. The BMA has repeatedly warned that amidst the highest levels of infections in the world, now is not the right time to abandon legal restrictions such as social distancing and mask wearing - and we are likely to see this situation continue to worsen as a result.

On Monday the government announced that fully vaccinated frontline health and social care workers will be able to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation, if they have been in contact with someone testing positive, in some circumstances. (This is broadly the same policy extended to food depot workers, and to some critical workers, last night). But Nagpaul argued this policy was a mistake. He said:

Exempting healthcare staff from self-isolation to get them back to work is a desperate and potentially unsafe policy that does not address the root problem. The safety of patients and staff must be paramount. People go to see healthcare professionals in order to get better, not to risk getting infected, and staff should not fear transmission of the virus from their own colleagues.

The TUC has said the government plans announced last night to allow a limited number of critical workers in 16 sectors to use testing as an alternative to isolation are flawed. Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, said:

The government needs to be clear about who it classes as critical workers. The current proposals don’t reflect the real world because businesses don’t exist in isolation â€" they are part of complex supply chains.

And ministers must ensure bad employers are not allowed to abuse the new rules on exemptions to have a free for all.

The government has given details of how its scheme will work here.

The London Chamber of Commerce has joined other business groups in saying that the government should stop requiring people to isolate if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. Richard Burge, the LCC chief executive, said:

The government should look at replacing the requirement to self-isolate with mandatory daily testing for anyone notified by NHS test and trace.

Ministers should be taking account of the effectiveness of daily testing where it is already being applied and considering rolling this out to support businesses’ ability to function and recover.

Nick Adderley, the chief constable of Northamptonshire police, has described the government’s decision to freeze pay for officers for 2021-22 as “an insult and wholly unacceptable”. He posted his comments on Twitter.

Nick Adderley (@NorthantsChief)

The announcement today of a 0% pay increase for police officers is quite frankly an insult and wholly unacceptable. Pay aside, this indicates a complete lack of awareness, appreciation or recognition for the incredible work officers have done throughout this pandemic.

July 22, 2021 Nick Adderley (@NorthantsChief)

Over the past 18 months I have seen officers punched, stabbed, shot, persecuted and ridiculed whilst attempting to implement confusing, rushed and ambiguous legislation, in order to protect the public and rightly, the NHS, only to be ignored when it comes to a pay settlement.

July 22, 2021

Adderley spoke out after Priti Patel became the first home secretary in more than a decade to receive a vote of no confidence from the Police Federation of England and Wales. My colleague Jamie Grierson has the story here.

This morning John Apter, the Police Federation national chair, explained on LBC the reasons for the vote. He said:

We feel bitterly let down, betrayed, and this isn’t just about the pay announcement that was, as you say, the final straw.

This goes back to the vaccination programme. Let’s look at the way that we were vilified and then hung out to dry during the pandemic, with the home secretary saying nice things and not following it up.

It’s not too late to do what the health secretary did, which is do a U-turn and make the announcement for the NHS staff.

The RMT rail union has said that reduced rail services planned for next week, as a result of staff shortages, could lead to overcrowding on trains. Mick Lynch, the RMT general secretary, said:

There is a real danger of a headlong rush into these new measures driven by this inept government which could make a bad situation even worse.

We are already hearing of planned reductions to rail services next week due to staff shortages.

Before any implementation of new procedures, employers need to produce proper risk assessments agreed with the union that consider and control the enhanced risks to all staff and ensure that the principle objective of workplace safety is maintained and fully enforced.

Firms will still face staff shortages as a result of people having to isolate despite the two schemes announced by the government last night (see 9.28am) that are intended to mitigate the problem, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The BCC wants many more workers to be able to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation.

Hannah Essex, co-executive director of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

While the announcement of a process which may exempt select critical workers from self-isolation in England will be a relief to some businesses, it will leave many more still facing critical staff shortages and lost revenue as the number of people being asked to isolate remains high.

Nearly half of the businesses we surveyed this week have had staff either off sick with Covid or self-isolating in the past two weeks ...

Pilot schemes for ‘test to release’ options have been running for some time now and we would urge the government to immediately bring forward the results of those test schemes and set out how this could be used to enable more double-vaccinated people to avoid self-isolation beyond this narrow group of critical workers.

Good morning. George Eustice, the environment secretary, said this morning that more than 10,000 people working in the food supply industry will benefit from a scheme to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation. It means that if staff are pinged by the NHS Covid app, or told to isolate by test and trace, because they have been in contact with someone testing positive, they will be able to stay at work provided they test negative. Announcing the scheme last night, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said:

Daily contact testing [ie, testing for people who are contacts of people testing positive] will be rolled out to critical workplaces in the food supply chain so that contacts who would otherwise be self-isolating can instead take daily tests.

Priority testing sites have already been identified with industry for urgent implementation this week, including the largest supermarket distribution centres, with rollout to hundreds of sites planned to start next week, with up to 500 sites in scope.

The move will allow daily testing for staff to take place so they can continue their vital work to supplying food for the nation.

Explaining the impact of the plan this morning, Eustice said:

We’ve identified close to 500 key sites, that includes around 170 supermarket depots, and then another couple of hundred key manufacturers like our bread manufacturers, dairy companies and so on.

All of the people working in those key strategic sites, distribution depots and those manufacturing facilities will be able to use this scheme, and probably well over 10,000 people.

Confusingly, the scheme was announced at the same time as the government gave details of a separate plan to allow critical workers in 16 key sectors to also use testing as an alternative to isolation. But this is not a blanket policy; it will only apply to selected named individuals, after their employers have got permission for them to be included from the relevant government department.

In interviews this morning, Eustice defended the decision to keep the scope of the second scheme, covering critical workers, limited. Asked why the government was not allowing supermarket store staff, for example, to be able to use testing as an alternative to isolation in the way supermarket depot staff will be able to, he said the government wanted to stick with isolation as the policy for most people. He said:

Well, the main reason is that would be a really significant undertaking, as you’re talking then thousands of different shops, and many more people, and we still want to maintain the test, trace and isolate system.

We know that the most important thing is to ensure that those main arteries in our food supply chain keep working, that the lorries keep going from depots to get goods to store and that the food manufacturers can continue to manufacture the goods to get it to the depots.

When you get to store level, of course, yes, there will be some difficulties, they will have staff shortages. But it is easier to manage at that level.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The ONS publishes figures on the social impact of coronavirus.

12pm: The ONS publishes its weekly Covid infection survey.

Afternoon: The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is expected to release a fresh batch of background papers.

And today the Scottish government is expected to release details of its own changes to isolation rules.

Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid news recently and that will probably be the case today. For more coronavirus developments, do follow our global Covid live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Share this post